Macro Intelligence
Structural macro intelligence derived from economic, liquidity, inflation and market indicators
USD / INR
Rs. 96.32
CPI Inflation
4.82%
Repo Rate
5.25%
Foreign Institutional Flows
Rs. -9,841 Cr
Crude Oil
USD 100.2/bbl
Government Capex
Rs. 3.65 L Cr
Manufacturing PMI
52.8
Auto Sales
24.2 L
Gold Prices
Rs. 4,195/gm
Silver Prices
Rs. 61/gm
India VIX
14.45
Global VIX
16.47
Current Macro Environment
Current Macro Regime
Mixed
The macro outlook for Indian equities remains neutral, with supportive growth factors tempered by inflationary risks.
Executive Summary
The current macro environment for Indian equities reflects a neutral stance, driven by mixed signals across key indicators. Economic growth is supported by strong government capex and improving auto sales, particularly in passenger and commercial vehicles, which indicate robust consumer demand. However, inflationary pressures are evident, with CPI inflation deteriorating and crude oil prices rising, posing risks to purchasing power. Liquidity conditions remain favorable, bolstered by improving foreign institutional flows and a stable repo rate. Risk sentiment is cautiously optimistic, as evidenced by declining volatility indicators, although the currency dynamics show a slight deterioration in the USD/INR. Overall, while growth signals are encouraging, inflation and currency pressures warrant close monitoring.
👍Key Positive Drivers
- Strong government capex
- Improving passenger vehicle sales
- Robust foreign institutional flows
⚠ Key Risks
- Deteriorating CPI inflation
- Rising crude oil prices
- Weakening USD/INR