Macro Intelligence
Structural macro intelligence derived from economic, liquidity, inflation and market indicators
Growth
Two & Three Wheeler Sales
20.1 L
▲ Improving
Auto Sales
25.7 L
▲ Improving
Commercial Vehicle Sales
0.9 L
▲ Improving
Government Capex
Rs. 2.97 L Cr
▲ Improving
Manufacturing PMI
53.5
▲ Improving
Power Demand
268.9 GW
▲ Improving
Passenger Vehicle Sales
4.2 L
▲ Improving
Inflation
Cement Prices
Rs. 395/bag
▲ Improving
CPI Inflation
4.45%
Crude Oil
USD 86.1/bbl
Hot Rolled Coil Prices
Rs. 1,190/tonne
Liquidity
Foreign Institutional Flows
Rs. 5,950 Cr
Repo Rate
5.25%
▲ Improving
Risk & Market Sentiment
GLOBAL_VIX
16.56
▲ Improving
Gold Prices
Rs. 4,147/gm
▲ Improving
INDIA_VIX
12.55
▲ Improving
Silver Prices
Rs. 60/gm
▲ Improving
USD / INR
Rs. 95.79
Current Macro Environment
Current Macro Regime
Risk-On
The macro outlook for Indian equities remains positive, driven by improving growth indicators and supportive liquidity conditions, despite inflationary headwinds.
Executive Summary
The current macro environment reflects a cautiously optimistic growth outlook, bolstered by strong government capex and improving auto sales, which signal resilience in domestic demand. However, inflationary pressures remain a concern, particularly with rising crude oil prices, despite a neutral CPI reading. Liquidity conditions are favorable, supported by a declining repo rate, although foreign institutional flows are deteriorating, which could pose challenges. Overall, the risk sentiment is improving, as indicated by declining volatility measures and rising precious metal prices.
✓ Key Positive Drivers
- Strong government capex
- Improving auto and passenger vehicle sales
- Declining repo rate
⚠ Key Risks
- Deteriorating foreign institutional flows
- Rising crude oil prices