Bajaj Finance
Stock Snapshot
Price Performance
Vista Outlook
Basis of our Recommendation
Bajaj Finance's recent management commentary highlights a disciplined approach to risk management and operational efficiency, with a focus on expanding its gold loan business and leveraging AI for improved underwriting. This strategic direction supports Vista's forecast of a robust 24% AUM growth target for FY27, despite potential macroeconomic headwinds. The company's proactive measures, such as maintaining a strong balance sheet and creating a macroeconomic overlay provision, position it well for sustainable growth. While the NBFC sector is experiencing a sunrise phase with improving pricing power, Bajaj Finance's competitive position remains stable, bolstered by its diversified product offerings. However, the company faces challenges from regulatory changes and heightened competition, which could pressure margins. Over the next 12-24 months, key opportunities include the scaling of digital platforms and the recovery of the MSME segment, while watchpoints include geopolitical risks and the impact of inflation on consumer spending. Overall, Vista's outlook reflects confidence in Bajaj Finance's ability to navigate these dynamics, with an expected upside of approximately 33.84%
Why We Like This Stock
- Strong AUM growth target of 24% for FY27 driven by strategic expansion in gold loans and AI-led efficiencies
- Proactive risk management measures, including a macroeconomic overlay provision, enhance balance sheet resilience
- The NBFC sector's improving pricing power supports profitability and competitive positioning
Things To Watch Out For
- Potential regulatory changes could impact operational flexibility and margin stability
- Geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures may affect consumer spending and repayment capacity
- Intensifying competition among NBFCs could exert downward pressure on margins
Key Parameters
Financial Snapshot
View Technicals Analysis →| Actuals | Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | |
| Revenue (Cr.) | 36,088 | 44,717 | 53,319 | 57,048 | 68,312 |
| Profit Before Tax (Cr.) | 19,323 | 22,116 | 26,082 | 33,514 | 41,310 |
| PBT Margin | 53.5% | 49.5% | 48.9% | 58.7% | 60.5% |
| Net Profit (Cr.) | 14,361 | 16,440 | 19,137 | 24,629 | 29,859 |
| Earnings Per Share | 23.1 | 26.2 | 30.3 | 38.9 | 48.0 |
Analyst Recommendations
| Broker | Recommendation | Target Price | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffries | ▲ Buy | 1,280 | 23-Sep-2026 |
| UBS | ► Hold | 1,100 | 22-Sep-2026 |
| Nomura | ▲ Buy | 1,270 | 20-Aug-2026 |
| Bernstein | ▼ Reduce | 840 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| CLSA | ▲ Buy | 1,300 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Citigroup | ▲ Buy | 1,300 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Emkay Global | ▼ Reduce | 1,050 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| HSBC | ▲ Buy | 1,270 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| ICICI Securities | ▲ Buy | 1,250 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| JPMorgan | ▲ Buy | 1,295 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Macguire | ▼ Underperform | 850 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Moneycontrol | ▼ Sell | nan | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | ▲ Overweight | 1,225 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Motilal Oswal | ▲ Buy | 1,300 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Nuvama | ► Hold | 1,175 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Prabhudas Liladhar | ▲ Buy | 1,125 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| HDFC Securities | ▲ Buy | 1,100 | 30-Jul-2026 |
| JMFinancials | ▲ Buy | 1,220 | 20-Jul-2026 |
| Geojit Financials | ▲ Buy | 1,045 | 14-May-2026 |
| Axis Securities | ▲ Buy | 1,160 | 30-Apr-2026 |
| Kotak Securities | ▲ Buy | 1,075 | 30-Apr-2026 |
Company Overview
Show Company Profile
Bajaj Finance Limited operates as a deposit-taking non-banking financial company in India. The company offers financing for various products, such as consumer electronics, furniture, digital products, lifestyle products, lifecare services, e-commerce purchases, retail spends, and two and three-wheelers; and personal, unsecured, home, secured, gold, and car loans. It also provides secured and unsecured loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises; loans against property, mutual funds, insurance policies, and shares; developer finance and lease rental discounting services; commercial vehicle financing; and new and used car financing, and tractor financing. In addition, the company offers commercial and rural lending; public and corporate deposits; loans against securities; micro-finance and auto financing lending; proprietary trading, ESOP financing, and broking and margin trade financing services. Further, it distributes life, health, and general insurance products. The company was formerly known as Bajaj Auto Finance Limited and changed its name to Bajaj Finance Limited in September 2010. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Pune, India. Bajaj Finance Limited is a subsidiary of Bajaj Finserv Ltd.