Avenue Supermarts
Stock Snapshot
Price Performance
Vista Outlook
Basis of our Recommendation
Avenue Supermarts (DMART) is navigating a complex retail landscape characterized by aggressive physical expansion and evolving consumer preferences. Management's commitment to a disciplined growth strategy, focusing on unit economics and profitability, is crucial as the company aims to double its store count to 1,000 by 2030. This long-term vision is supported by a stable margin outlook, despite pressures from rising competition in quick commerce and fluctuating consumer spending. Recent earnings calls indicate a cautious approach to e-commerce, with a shift towards profitable clusters and a rationalized DMART Ready strategy. Vista's forecast reflects a moderate revenue growth trajectory, with margins expected to remain stable, aligning with the company's focus on maintaining its Every Day Low Price (EDLP) model. The retail sector's recovery, particularly in rural areas, provides a favorable backdrop, although inflationary pressures and competitive dynamics pose challenges. Over the next 12-24 months, key opportunities include continued store expansion and leveraging high-margin private labels, while watchpoints include the impact of quick commerce on foot traffic and the sustainability of consumer spending recovery
Why We Like This Stock
- Management's disciplined expansion strategy aims to double store count by 2030, enhancing market share
- Stable profit margins are expected, supported by a focus on unit economics and operational efficiency
- The retail sector's recovery, particularly in rural markets, presents growth opportunities for DMART
Things To Watch Out For
- Rising competition from quick commerce is impacting foot traffic and sales per square foot in metro areas
- Inflationary pressures may challenge margin stability and consumer spending patterns
- Regulatory and real estate challenges could hinder the pace of store expansion
Key Parameters
Financial Snapshot
View Technicals Analysis →| Actuals | Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | |
| Revenue (Cr.) | 50,789 | 59,358 | 68,821 | 71,609 | 82,215 |
| Profit Before Tax (Cr.) | 3,436 | 3,658 | 4,082 | 4,311 | 5,042 |
| PBT Margin | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| Net Profit (Cr.) | 2,531 | 2,678 | 2,981 | 3,158 | 3,693 |
| Earnings Per Share | 38.8 | 41.1 | 45.7 | 48.4 | 56.6 |
Analyst Recommendations
| Broker | Recommendation | Target Price | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | ▼ Reduce | 3,520 | 18-Sep-2026 |
| Emkay Global | ▼ Sell | 3,700 | 17-Sep-2026 |
| HDFC Securities | ► Add | 4,100 | 04-Aug-2026 |
| JPMorgan | ► Hold | 4,100 | 31-Jul-2026 |
| Elara Capital | ► Accumulate | 4,700 | 29-Jul-2026 |
| Macguire | ▼ Underperform | 3,250 | 29-Jul-2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | ▲ Overweight | 4,464 | 29-Jul-2026 |
| Motilal Oswal | ► Neutral | 4,015 | 29-Jul-2026 |
| CLSA | ▲ Outperform | 5,723 | 27-Jul-2026 |
| Bernstein | ▲ Buy | 5,000 | 13-Jul-2026 |
| Citigroup | ▼ Sell | 3,400 | 13-Jul-2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | ▼ Reduce | 4,000 | 13-Jul-2026 |
| ICICI Securities | ► Hold | 4,200 | 13-Jul-2026 |
| Kotak Securities | ▼ Sell | 3,850 | 13-Jul-2026 |
| Moneycontrol | ▼ Underweight | nan | 13-Jul-2026 |
| Prabhudas Liladhar | ► Hold | 4,103 | 12-Jul-2026 |
| UBS | ▲ Buy | 5,500 | 03-Jul-2026 |
| Geojit Financials | ▲ Buy | 5,063 | 23-Jun-2026 |
| Jeffries | ► Hold | 4,500 | 04-May-2026 |
| BofA | ► Hold | 4,525 | 07-Apr-2026 |
Company Overview
Show Company Profile
Avenue Supermarts Limited engages in the business of organized retail and operation of supermarkets under the D-Mart brand name in India. The company offers food products, such as groceries, staples, processed food products, dairy, frozen products, beverages and confectionery products, and fruits and vegetables; non-food products, including home care and personal care products, toiletries, and other over the counter products; and general merchandise and apparel products comprising bed and bath products, toys and games, crockery, plastic goods, garments, footwear, utensils, and home appliances. It is also involved in the online and multi-channel retail of grocery and household products under the DMart Ready brand name; packing and sale of grocery products, spices, dry fruits, etc.; operation of food outlets and pharmacy stores; and development of land and construction. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Mumbai, India.