DINESH

National Aluminium Company

Latest CMP 376
Today's Change ▼ -6.12%
52-Week High / Low 439 | 177
Price Date: 14-Aug-2026
Recommendation Strong Buy
Target Price 514
Expected Upside 16.9%
Forecast Horizon 2 Years
Historical CAGR 16.0%
1,000 Invested 15-Aug-2006
Today's Value 19,316
Investment Period 20 Years

Stock Snapshot

Post Results Return
+10.0%
Mild Positive Re-rating
1-Year Target Price
519
2-Year Target Price
514
52-Week High / Low
439 / 177
20-Day Return
+9.7%
Market Cap (Cr.)
69,058
Current PE
11.3
P/BV Ratio
3.2
Dividend Yield
4.8%
Industry PE
23.8

Price Performance

Basis of our Recommendation

National Aluminium Company (NALCO) is positioned for growth, driven by significant capacity expansion initiatives, including the commissioning of a new alumina refinery and a brownfield smelter project. Management's positive outlook on global aluminum demand, supported by a structural supply deficit, underpins Vista's forecast of accelerating revenue growth and improving margins. However, the company faces challenges from raw material inflation and execution risks associated with its ambitious capital projects. Vista's financial outlook anticipates a 39.8% upside, reflecting the attractive valuation relative to intrinsic value estimates. The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a favorable environment, bolstered by rising aluminum prices and strong demand from infrastructure investments. Over the next 12-24 months, key opportunities include the successful integration of new capacity and enhanced raw material security from the Potangi mine. Conversely, watchpoints include potential cost overruns in capital projects and volatility in aluminum prices, which could impact profitability. Overall, NALCO's robust balance sheet and strategic focus on capacity expansion position it well for sustained growth amidst a supportive industry backdrop

👍 Why We Like This Stock

  • Significant capacity expansion with the commissioning of a new alumina refinery and smelter project
  • Positive outlook on global aluminum demand due to a structural supply deficit
  • Strong balance sheet with zero net debt, providing financial stability for growth initiatives

Things To Watch Out For

  • Execution risks associated with large-scale capital projects could impact growth timelines
  • Inflationary pressures on raw materials may challenge margin expansion
  • Volatility in aluminum prices poses a risk to future profitability

Key Parameters

Balance Sheet Strength
Conservatively Financed
Market Share
Stable
Industry Outlook
Improving
Analyst View
Buy
Dividend History
Consistent
FII Holdings
Stable

Financial Snapshot

Actuals Forecast
FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28
Revenue (Cr.) 13,149 16,788 17,843 22,169 24,287
Profit Before Tax (Cr.) 2,285 7,077 7,749 12,262 11,778
PBT Margin 17.4% 42.2% 4342.9% 55.3% 48.5%
Net Profit (Cr.) 1,641 5,220 5,729 9,088 8,729
Earnings Per Share 8.9 28.4 31.2 49.5 47.5

Analyst Recommendations

Broker Recommendation Target Price Date
Axis Securities ▲ Buy 420 06-Aug-2026
Emkay Global ▼ Reduce 340 04-Aug-2026
HSBC ▲ Buy 480 10-Jun-2026
Kotak Securities ▲ Buy 420 04-Aug-2026
Motilal Oswal ► Neutral 380 05-Aug-2026
Prabhudas Liladhar ► Accumulate 401 04-Aug-2026
UBS ▲ Buy 460 15-Jun-2026
Consensus Recommendation ▲ Buy
Consensus Target 404
Coverage 7 Analysts
Analysts' Viewpoint
National Aluminium Company's strategic focus on capacity expansion, including the 1mtpa alumina refinery and a 0.5mt smelter, is expected to drive significant production growth by FY28. Analysts highlight the company's strong balance sheet and partnerships, which support these initiatives. However, execution risks and rising input costs, particularly in energy and raw materials, pose challenges. Key future catalysts include the commencement of production at the Pottangi bauxite mine and the stabilization of new capacity, which are crucial for long-term growth.

Company Overview

Show Company Profile

National Aluminium Company Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of alumina and aluminum products in India and internationally. The company operates through Chemical and Aluminum segments. It offers aluminum metal products, such as ingots, alloy ingots, T-ingots, sows, billets, and wire rods; alumina and hydrate products, including calcined alumina and alumina hydrate; zeolite-A products; specialty alumina and hydrate products; and aluminum rolled and aluminum chequered sheets products. The company also owns and operates Coal Mine covering an area of 824.316 hectors situated in Chhendipada Tehsil of Angul District; an opencast mine covering an area of 16 square kilometers on Panchpatmali hills of Koraput district in Odisha; a wind power plant with 50.4 MW of generation capacity in Gandikota, Andhra Pradesh; a wind power plant with 47.6 MW of generation capacity at Jaisalmer, Rajasthan; a wind power plant with 50 MW of generation capacity at Devikot, Rajasthan; a wind power plant with 50.4 MW of generation capacity at Sangli, Maharashtra; and a solar power plant in Bhubaneswar, as well as alumina refinery and aluminum smelter plants and captive power plant. In addition, it owns and operates mechanized storage and ship handling facilities for exporting alumina and importing caustic soda. National Aluminium Company Limited was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Bhubaneswar, India.